References

Structured Decision Making

Clemen, R.T., & Reilly, T. (2004). Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools Suite Update Edition. Boston, MA: South-Western College Publishing.

Gregory, R., McDaniels, T., & Fields, D. (2001). Decision Aiding, Not Dispute Resolution: Creating Insights Through Structured Environmental Decisions. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 20:3, 415-432.

Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L., & Raiffa, H. (1999). Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

Keeney, R. (1992). Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Keeney, R., & McDaniels, T. (1999). Identifying and Structuring Values to Guide Integrated Resource Planning at BC Gas. Operations Research, 47:5, 651-662.

McDaniels, T. (2000). Creating and Using Objectives for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management. Environmental Science and Policy, 3:6, 299-304.

McDaniels, T., & Gregory, R. (2004). Learning as an Objective within Structured
Decision Processes for Managing Environmental Risks. Environmental Science and Technology, 38:7, 1921-1926.

Irreducible Uncertainty

Cullen, A., & Small, M.J. (2004). Uncertain Risk: The Role and Limits of Quantitative Assessment. In T. McDaniels and M. J. Small (Eds.), Risk Analysis and Society. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press.

Keeney, R., & McDaniels, T. (2001). A Framework to Guide Thinking and Analysis Regarding Climate Change Policies. Risk Analysis, 21:6, 989-1000.

Morgan, M.G., & Keith, D.W. (2008). Improving the Way We Think About Projecting Future Energy Use and Emissions of Carbon Dioxide. Climatic Change, 90:3, 189–215.

Morgan, M.G., Kandlikar, M., Risbey, J., & Dowlatabadi, H. (1999). Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change. [Editorial] Climatic Change, 41:3-4, 271-281.

Vulnerabilities

Schneider, S.H., et al. (2007). Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change. In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden & C.E. Hanson (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Adaptive Capacity

Brooks, N., Adger W.N., & Kelly, P.M. (2005). The Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity at the National Level and the Implications for Adaptation. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 15:2, 151-163.

Adaptive Management

Arvai, J., et al. (2006). Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem: Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy. Climatic Change, 78:1, 217-225.

Holling, C.S. (Ed.). (1978). Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. Chichester, UK: Wiley.

Lee, K.N. (1993). Compass and Gyroscope: Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment. Washington, DC: Island Press.

Walters, C. (1986). Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources. New York: Macmillan.

Robust Alternatives

Lempert, R.J., & Collins, M.T. (2007). Managing the Risk of Uncertain Threshold Response: Comparison of Robust, Optimum, and Precautionary Approaches. Risk Analysis, 27:4, 1009-1026.

Lempert, R.J., Popper, S.W., & Bankes, S.C. (2003). Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.